Update on this post in 2022…

This is funny to read 11 year later. In review I’d say:

  • 3 of 7 were directionally right (Facebook, NYC startups, and undergrads studying technical fields)
  • 2 were underwhelming but reasonable (Enterprise Tablet, Hardware Startups)
  • 2 were extremely wrong (AOL making a comeback! Phone’s getting viruses)

It’s not that surprising that the three I got right were, basically, the things I understood best. I was a Facebook user in the target demo of the time. I was choosing to move to NYC to work in startups. And I was an undergrad in tech. The other ones were all trends I learned about by reading other people’s thoughts. Good reminder to do things you understand!

Original post…

To ring in the new year I wanted to make some tech predictions for 2011. One of my favorite things about reading other blogs is looking back at the blogger’s predictions and seeing how well they did. Hopefully you can check back at the end of the year and keep me honest. So, without further adieu…

#1 Facebook will be the most visited web property in the world

Just days ago Hitwise reported that Facebook.com is now the worlds most visited website with 8.93% of all web visits (surpassing Google.com with 7.19%). Google properties still command more visits overall at 9.85% (think YouTube). But, I predict that Facebook will overtake them in 2011. Possibly by fully integrating email. Intriguingly, 4 of the top 10 most searched phrases include Facebook, and the top two are “facebook” and “facebook login.” Even Goldman Sachs seems to be buying this one.

#2 AOL will truly make it’s “comeback”

Wow, has AOL been on a wild ride over the past 20 years. A 90’s Dot-com darling AOL will perhaps always be revered as the easiest way to get on the internet. Also, remember those free AOL install CDs? Then the failed merger with Time Warner and tech bubble burst sent AOL to the ground. Just last December it was spun off from Time Warner and went public on it’s own. Since then it has emerged again, repositioning itself as a new internet media company- buying prominent web properties like TechCrunch, as well as the intriguing About.me. While using an @aol email may no longer be the hippest thing expect to hear about AOL this year. I think they are the future of online content and advertising.

#3 Year of the enterprise tablet

Apple’s COO TIm Cook has stated that 65% of the Fortune 100 companies are developing enterprise software for the iPad. 14% of all companies plan on purchasing tablets for their employees in 2011. While It could be argued that 2010 was the year of the tablet, I think we mostly saw consumer uses, with mostly vague plans to expand to enterprise. In 2011, look to see true enterprise solutions in project management, medicine, retail, and more. The possibilities here are endless, and we should see an outpouring of enterprise tablet startups as well as industry giants attempting to gain a foothold. It will also be interesting to see which tablet becomes the de facto enterprise tablet. The iPad is obviously the current lead, but RIMM (makers of Blackberry), Samsung, HP and Dell have already made pushes to enter the market. Could be especially interesting to see if Blackberry can leverage its enterprise phone customers in the tablet market. Thanks ZT for your comment below!

#4 The first time your phone gets a virus

The next battleground against malware will be mobile. There have already been reports of a virus dubbed Gemini spreading through Android phones. As smartphone become more popular the market for trojans, phishing attacks and spyware targeting mobile operating systems will increase. AVG recently purchased DroidSecurity, an Israeli startup in this space. Look to see startups emerging in this market, as well as innovation by the big anti-malware players. I am particularly interested to see how the Android and iOS operating systems try to differentiate their responses to this challenge.

#5 New York City’s big startup year

NYC has long been a center for talented people from throughout the world. It is still the center for world finance and advertising. But, until recently those industries greatly shadowed tech. But, this is quickly changing. Any computer science student looking for a job right now should check out New York. Companies like Etsy, Meetup, Foursquare, MongoDB, Gilt Group, and Ideali are all hiring. These companies as well as Interesting startups like Hunch and SeatGeek will continue to make Silicon Alley more like Silicon Valley this year. New York is well positioned to take the lead in internet advertising and big data- it is still the center of advertising, and solutions to data problems in finance can be transfered to other verticals. I think 2011 will see the first massive exit from New York, as well as greater recognition from the tech media, VCs, and angel investors.

#6 Resurgence of hardware startups

Nowadays people seem to forget that Silicon Valley got its moniker because the first startups there created physical products. The current tech boom has mostly embraced the Web 2.0 technologies of mobile, social, eCommerce and the like. I think that the most intriguing technologies of 2011 will be in hardware. This includes a new generation of consumer electronics made more affordable than ever by the ability to manage the logistics cheaper than ever (although you can see WakeMate having trouble with this). Nonetheless, as the process is streamlined, the realm of consumer technologies possible using Android and other mobile operating systems is immense.

#7 Huge uptick in undergraduates studying technical fields

This isn’t exactly a technical prediction, but, I foresee more American’s studying technical fields like engineering and computer science. The simplest reason is following the money. 10 of the 13 highest paying undergraduate majors are engineering, with the other three being physics, computer science, and economics. Major economic turmoil changes habits of thought. While the American middle class had trended towards seeing college as a time to find oneself, I believe the increasing cost of college and general economic strife will cause parents and students alike to refocus college as a career builder. Further, studying finance might still be an incredible way to make money, but the pop culture exposure of tech (think The Social Network) is making doing tech cool again.

Those are my main predictions, what do you think? Leave a comment if you can think of a major trend I missed, or you think anything I said was total bogus.